Comments for Baseball Engineer

Comment on The Next Stat / Checking in with the 2011 HOF Ballot by Dave Butler

Dave Butler — Wed, 06 Jul 2011 18:29:52 +0000

I agree with John on all of the “should be in guys” (too bad the HOF voters didn’t) and while I agree with him on most of the “no” guys, I’d definitely put Alan Trammell in (I think he’s better than probably 10 of the HOF SS’s) and probably Kevin Brown (this isn’t a congeniality award, after all) while giving serious consideration to Lee Smith (even though I’m sort of anti-closer when it comes to the HOF) and Larry Walker (John mentions all of the other things besides hitting that he’s good at, and while I have the same reservations about his road stats, his OPS+ is still 140, good for 73rd all-time).

Comment on The Smell of Resin by John Cappello

John Cappello — Tue, 21 Jun 2011 01:52:32 +0000

Matt, if you can get Charlie to go on record to admit that, I’ll buy you a ciabatta melt made just the way you like it.

Comment on The Smell of Resin by Matt Bove

Matt Bove — Mon, 20 Jun 2011 13:54:24 +0000

Johnny, I was just going through the archives and came across this old post of yours….now while I can’t verify it either, my guess would have to be those eloquent words came from Charlie Chiango – former President of Blackwood Little League, no??

Comment on Manny turns in his Hall of Fame ticket by John Cappello

John Cappello — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 17:32:46 +0000

Ted, thanks for the thoughts. Many believe the level of tolerance for the Steroid Era stars and the HOF will grow much larger over time. I suppose I’m on the intolerant side of the issue here; at the same time I would be VERY surprised if Manny doesn’t take a hit on the ballots with his two and a half steroid infractions. For whatever it’s worth, the BBWAA hasn’t yet demonstrated a thinking along the lines of what you described at the SABR meeting, although I suppose 15 years is a long enough time for viewpoints to shift.

Comment on Manny turns in his Hall of Fame ticket by Ted Leavengood

Ted Leavengood — Mon, 11 Apr 2011 16:41:01 +0000

John, Nice post, but at the SABR event on Saturday morning there was considerable discussion of Manny and there were opinions back and forth, but all agreed that on merit he deserves in the HOF. The comparison was made to Orlando Cepeda and while I am not certain that Manny and Cepeda were in the same breath–the discussion ranged over numerous players–it seems a valid comparison. Do we know with any certainty that Manny’s infraction was PEDs? It has been written as such, but I haven’t seen anything definitive. A list of players was put on the floor that included all of the PED players of note and a chapter officer contended they will all be in the HOF in our lifetime. As far as Manny goes, I tend to agree. Bonds not so much if he is convicted. Which we should know soon.

Comment on Measuring a Pitcher’s Ace Factor by John Cappello

John Cappello — Fri, 18 Mar 2011 22:42:23 +0000

Here’s the response I did on Seamheads regarding Carlton and 1972:

Carlton’s ‘72 season ranked 107th in sWEZ. The quick answer why he ranked so low is his competition and his outings. As dominating as he was winning 27 games for a last-place club, his outings weren’t as consistently dominant as the starters above him on the sWEZ list, relative to his league. Using the “effective” decisions to grade each outing, Carlton had 5 losses and 8 no-decisions out of his 41 starts according to the algorithm. Although the Phils were woeful offensively they did chip in at times, scoring 7.8 runs per game in six games in which his “effective” record was 0-3-3, allowing him to escape with three actual wins and three no decisions.

Remember, sWEZ represents dominance within the league that season. In 1972, there were a fair share of performers keeping Carlton company at the top, such as Gaylord Perry (24-16, 1.92 ERA, 234 K, 170 ERA+), Gary Nolan (15-5, 1.99 ERA, 162 ERA+), Catfish Hunter (21-7, 2.04 ERA, 140 ERA+), Jim Palmer (21-10, 2.07 ERA, 150 ERA+), and Don Sutton (19-9, 2.08 ERA, 162 ERA+), plus 34 other pitchers with ERAs under 3.00. Pedro (2000) and Maddux (1994) were on an island when it came to relative performances.

I’m running “hWEZ” so that we can grade these seasonal performances relative to historical measures as well as seasonal. A quick glance at the hWEZ results shows Carlton’s ‘72 season moving all the way up to 37th place.

Comment on Measuring a Pitcher’s Ace Factor by Richcap

Richcap — Fri, 18 Mar 2011 22:16:51 +0000

I am anxious to read your follow up. The closing has peaked my interest for next article. I really like the analysis. It compares to a QB rating in football in some respects.

The only problem I have with it is the same problem you’re going to have with every other stat…. ballparks, divisions, weather, and unrelated games are going to skew the results. But it really is a great tool to compare eras. You really captured a stat that encompasses consistent pitching over a full year. It showed how deserving King Felix was for his last Cy Young.

I like to see the analysis for Carlton’s ’72 year where he won 27 wins for a pathetic team. I think you’ll find that his team hit well when he pitched. Where is he in those little dots.

Comment on Measuring a Pitcher’s Ace Factor by John Cappello

John Cappello — Fri, 18 Mar 2011 15:01:19 +0000

That’s a great suggestion and it would be interesting to do that–while keeping in mind that these are two vastly different algorithms, each with their own motivations and built-in biases. Thanks for the kind words.

Comment on Measuring a Pitcher’s Ace Factor by Ari Berkowitz

Ari Berkowitz — Fri, 18 Mar 2011 14:08:09 +0000

Brilliant, just brilliant work. If I remember correctly, Tango recently had a post where he took WAR and made it into a W-L Record. I think it would be interesting to compare the two figures (and also run a correlation between the two).

Comment on World Series Bluff Sends Johnny to the Bench by John Cappello

John Cappello — Fri, 18 Feb 2011 01:11:58 +0000

It might be stuck on a dusty reel in some NBC basement.